A Refreshing Change, but Will It Last?

Refreshing.  Exhilarating, even!  But will it last?  Our gut feeling is that this is not The Big One – that investors will soon be throwing money at stocks again with the same reckless abandon they’ve shown since 2009. But it never hurts to dream. Imagine what a whole month of days like yesterday would do to clear the fetid, toxic air from Wall Street.  The effect would be positively cathartic if the capitulation phase were to lop, say, 2000 points from the Dow in just a few days. From that point forward, even the most churlish permabears  would recognize that the stock market was in recovery mode, too devastated to attract the quasi-criminal element that has controlled price action in recent years. High frequency trading circuitry would be fried, yields on dividend stocks would fatten and interest rates could seek their own level. Who knows? Perhaps even the $3 trillion-plus in dubious assets carried by the Fed would come available at market prices?

Meanwhile, although our very bullish Dow target at 16800 remains theoretically valid, the burden of proof has shifted to bulls for a rare change. From a technical standpoint, we can see in retrospect that late May’s record high at 15542 was precisely predictable and therefore shortable. The reason is shown in the weekly chart accompanying today’s DJIA tout, which can be accessed by non-subscribers via a free trial subscription. Those familiar with Hidden Pivot Analysis, including your editor, might want to kick themselves for missing the opportunity. Less easy to miss in the days ahead would be the creation of a bearish “impulse leg” on the weekly chart. The last time this occurred was in July 2011, and it signaled the onset of a 2147-point decline, or 17.6%. If a selloff of similar magnitude were to occur now, the Dow would sell for 12807, a 1925-point discount from the current price. What would it take to generate a bearish impulse leg?  The chart shows that sellers would need to drive the Dow beneath the 14444 low without an intervening upward correction of significance.  Were this to occur, bulls would likely be on the defensive till at least September.  What a welcome change that would be!

  • Chris T. June 25, 2013, 9:35 am

    shopping, agreed.
    But don’t forget to read the label, much change there too, and of course not for the better;

  • KevinR June 23, 2013, 11:20 pm

    Cam, I was not getting excited. Just noting that ‘inflation’ (as the US government tracks/reports it) is not minimal.

    If there is any doubt about where we are heading just take a look at a few of these graphs. What’s that old expression again? History may not repeat exactly but it often rymes. Or those that don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

    So we either have $900 gold and 4500 DOW, or $3000 gold and 9000 DOW or $10,000 gold and 10,000 DOW. I can’t say what it is going to be (anywhere from a 5:1 to 1:1 DOW/gold ratio) but any way either gold is going to rise dramatically or the DOW is going to fall hard…..
    I think all the rest is just noise IMO. It’s just a matter of time.

    http://static.safehaven.com/authors/weytjens/21867_a.png
    http://www.gold-speculator.com/attachments/editors-picks/13216d1289948373-200-year-chart-dow-gold-ratio-dow-gold-20ratio_1.png
    http://simplycharts.files.wordpress.com/2007/03/dowgoldratio2006.jpg

  • John Jay June 23, 2013, 5:17 pm

    Cam,
    I see zero evidence of the “Deflation” Ben keeps crying wolf about.
    Zero.
    The demand for gasoline in the USA has been on the decline since 2006. The winter low demand for gas in 2012 took us back to 2000 levels.
    Link: http://tinyurl.com/mtq3mh9
    Back in 2000 gas prices were about $1.20 a gallon.
    Link: http: http://tinyurl.com/q3xmv
    Now they are north of $4 a gallon.
    Health Insurance premiums are rising ever higher.
    Mine sure are!
    Food prices are always going up.
    The people in the streets all over the world from Egypt to Brazil are screaming about inflation, not deflation.

    The only consistent world deflation trend is in wages and interest paid on savings.
    It only requires inflation in a few key areas like food and energy to suck up all the discretionary income left to the average American and suddenly, he can’t make it.
    And Ben ignores that fact on purpose.
    Real deflation would mean you could buy a house with a 5 year mortgage and pay it off just like that.
    And the bankers in charge are never going to let that happen.
    Real deflation would mean gasoline would be $.50 a gallon.
    And big oil will never let that happen.
    Ditto for health insurance.
    Those big corporations have all been granted monopoly concessions by bribing the DC gang to the point where they write legislation and hand it to Congress to rubber stamp.
    There are nascent popular uprisings all over the globe, and I sure hope it hits here last.

    • Cam Fitzgerald June 24, 2013, 4:04 pm

      John, this is not real inflation. It is artificial. Just a residual outcome of the various QE’s and interventions that we have seen across the globe that pumped money into commodity speculation and all asset classes. You can point to all those numbers and I will agree they show increases but I will also suggest we look more closely at why they exist in the first place. This will not last under the current circumstances and what we are now seeing is the overriding deflationary trend reassert itself. As soon as that liquidity starts flowing back to where it was first released and begins getting mopped up the first very real signs of deflation will materialize in obvious ways.

  • KevinR June 23, 2013, 2:38 pm

    That doesn’t sound like deflation to me. The only thing that seems to be deflating is the purchasing power and the package size!

    • Cam Fitzgerald June 23, 2013, 5:50 pm

      Well the dollar went way up, Kevin and unfortunately that is not something to get excited about. The dollar was strong in the Great Depression too and almost everyone was poor as mice!

  • John Jay June 23, 2013, 6:58 am

    Chris,

    Now, worldwide, the dumbest of the dumb are beginning to catch on to how the game is rigged to favor the Oligarchs.
    Even in this country with it’s Celebrity/Sports Worship preoccupation.

    Which is why there is such a push to ram Comprehensive Amnesty through the Senate.
    Charlie Brown is about to finally balk at Lucy’s football trick!
    Promise a 700 mile fence and tougher enforcement and then never fund any of it when the time comes.
    Promise a stringent process for citizenship for illegal aliens, and then quietly never implement it.
    Exactly who is going to vet 10 or 20 million applicants for citizenship?
    There is no bureaucracy in place or planned to accomplish that task, it will be a mass rubber stamp for all applicants as usual.
    The same old political process in action.
    We’ll see what happens to that Bill in the House.

    On the incredible shrinking package at the grocery store, I just saw shelves stacked deep with Coca Cola’s new eight packs of 7.5 ounce cans!
    They are so tiny! They look like props for a little girl’s doll house!
    The packages of cookies are approaching the vanishing point too!
    Premium gas has gone up about 20 cents in three weeks out here in Southern California.
    Always something new to see when shopping!
    Very entertaining!

  • John Jay June 22, 2013, 4:40 pm

    I am following the events in Brazil with great interest.
    The populace did not take to the streets over a bus fare increase, that was just the last straw.
    They are furious about the same things that are a pervasive oppression to the average person worldwide.
    Inflation, corruption, and a detached, surly ruling class of oligarchs that control the Government.
    Brazilians have to struggle to survive while the Government spends billions on the Olympics and World Cup venues in Brazil.

    And I am sure you all saw the “Potemkin Village” store fronts in Northern Ireland to create the illusion of prosperity for visiting G-8 dignitaries.
    As well as almost 10,000 British and Irish police officers to suppress any unpleasant protests by the proles.
    I think that provides overwhelming evidence of the Consciousness of Guilt in the ruling class worldwide.
    Another COG acronym to go along with Continuity of Government!
    They know they have probably gone too far, so their minions in Government have really stepped up the worldwide Police State.
    And the angry crowds in the streets of Brazil prove they know the score.
    Even Augustus and Tiberius, for all their power, knew enough to fear the mob two thousand years ago.
    So too are today’s aspiring Emperors afraid of a revolt that would spoil their well laid plans.

    As far as how this relates to our markets, it will just send more scared money our way and delay our Brazil moment a while longer.
    I hope.

    • Chris t. June 23, 2013, 3:28 am

      problem is that the longer the delay before release, like with earthquakes/ plate movements, the more violent the release when it comes.
      so sooner is really better, but i fear you’re right.
      Then, watch out!

    • Cam Fitzgerald June 23, 2013, 6:39 am

      John, it is not really sending scared money our way as you suggest and we are not getting richer for it either. The dollar strengthening like it did in conjunction with a major asset sell-off means investors all over the world are in a flight to cash (in this case USD) and that is decidedly deflationary.

      Dollar strength is not the same as wealth coming home because you need to realize the dollar is a globally traded currency. It is not therefore a local instrument except by virtue of the fact you take your salary in that money.

      We all just got a lot poorer.

      What we saw last week was an incredibly deflationary event. Cash rose in buying power significantly and assets of all other classes, including every single commodity, declined. You would therefore be well advised to take profits as quickly as possible in whatever you own because money itself just became the one and only thing that can keep you afloat.

      The term “raise cash” has never been so urgent since the Global Financial Crisis in my opinion but even then you remain at risk. There is a distinct possibility that we will see major bank failures in Europe, Asia, and North America fairly simultaneously and another serious financial event will occur before this year is out.

      So even cash is not safe if you have it in the wrong place!

      And God love all the folks living on credit or mired deeply in debt when this massive credit screw gets tightened. They are all going up in smoke together with no salvation other than what generosity the government hands out because I also think unemployment is about to rocket ahead as an outcome of what transpires in the financial markets.

    • mario June 23, 2013, 2:55 pm

      Cam, on the currencies part, aren’t there etf s which are a basket of currencies?..or other similar vehicles which might be a way to protect your cash holdings from currency volatility?…Cheers, Mario

    • Cam Fitzgerald June 23, 2013, 5:41 pm

      You bet, Mario. For every circumstance and situation there seems to be something on offer to hedge risk but of course many instruments are completely unknown to most. Few people truly expect the unexpected either and so don’t want to spin their wheels buying things to defend against events that cannot be predicted with accuracy.

      I actually had a nasty shudder last week when it first dawned on me just how much damage could transpire in a single day. I should say “potential” carnage to be more precise because the real impact was more psychological than real.

      You know how Rick is often talking about the “Mother of all selloffs” that nobody will escape from intact? Some people doubt him when he talks like that because it is just assumed by most there will always be enough time and an opportunity to take evasive action…….but maybe he is right and we could see a complete market meltdown in our faces and be helpless to do anything about it.

      So anyway, I was watching my screens and absolutely everything went RED last week including bonds and I thought “Holy Mackerel”, this edifice really could all come down so fast that it would leave almost no exit for anyone but those who bet against the market in advance.

      What we saw was a near epic move in breadth changes across the globe even though it was not severe in depth. I was a little stunned because I knew in one second flat that everyone was trying to raise cash and get into dollars all at once.

      But what might happen if we see a continuation Monday morning? Obviously everyone cannot sell assets simultaneously. This is what happens when you have Bots and Algos running the system though. A rush for the exits can indeed happen that could create the circumstances for a plunge into a deflationary abyss almost literally overnight.

      Think for a second what it really means when everything from gold to corn to Rupees and even municipals are forsaken in an environment of no bids and meanwhile the whole lot are trying to park cash in dollars which drive the buck up like a rocket.

      Well that in a nutshell is what just happened.

      I don’t know about anyone else but I had the very faint glimpse of panic selling even though I knew it was machines at the helm. It is because people write the code though that makes it dangerous and it is the assumptions written into the programs that are pumping out the sell orders.

      So just like the last big gold decline where selling begat selling that triggered stop losses, in this case we were able to get a glimpse of how that same drama might play out across the entire commodity sector and end up including…..well…pretty much everything on the planet!

      And who knows……maybe that will be the outcome as the vast global interventions in all markets finally give way to a combination of machine speed and human fears. You can be sure the weaker banks would collapse within weeks on the tail of an event like that.

      Very few of them have enough reserves to cope with a real market meltdown in todays world anyway. We are truly living in a very unstable situation financially and perhaps what struck me most was just how vulnerable we really are when virtually no safe harbor could be found for those few hours when the markets decided to sell it all.

      I took some physical cash out of the bank as a precaution. What else was there to do?

  • Cam Fitzgerald June 22, 2013, 1:06 pm

    “Our gut feeling is that this is not The Big One” –Rick

    I am less certain, Rick. Have we ever seen a selloff quite like last week? It was global and in every single asset class, every currency, every major exchange, every commodity with only the dollar left standing on Thursday. I don’t relish a crash but have a real sense of foreboding about the coming week.

  • Chris T. June 22, 2013, 5:18 am

    forgot to mention, looked at the DAX chart lately?

    +39% from 6/21/12 to 6/21/13
    -9% since the recent high
    Dow looks tame in comparison

  • Chris T. June 22, 2013, 5:16 am

    Living in metro-NY NJ, plenty of communities where a large majority of the properties is >1m.

    Talking to a mortgage broker recently, he said it is hard to believe how many homes there (big time jumbos) are not in any state of foreclosure, but not paying the mortgage, and many not even property tax or the insurance. Underwater of course, and all involved, even the towns (who usually don’t have a problem tax-liening), let it ride.

    Nothing new to people on this site in substance, but the scope is still surprising.

    Metro DC has the same situation…
    Think this fetid toxic air will vent about the same time as above?

  • KevinR June 21, 2013, 7:05 pm

    Just a gut feeling that this is not the big one yet – for the one simple reason that I don’t ‘think’ all the bail-in laws for legalized theft are in place in all areas of the world yet. Once they are all in place, and the laws/budgets are all passed then watch out. Just my $0.02.