DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:155.90)

The broad averages have spent most of July screwing the pooch.  Although the shallow feints south over that time might look like a tedious consolidation on the intraday charts, there’s an equal chance that it is actually a bearish distribution. I say this because all of the sideways scuddling has occurred just shy of the rally target of the large ABC pattern shown. That is bearish on its face. Under the circumstances, we should look for shorting opportunities at these levels, since the Dow is positioned to fall without warning to 15363 (see inset) if it breaches that number’s sibling midpoint support at 15462.  Specifically, I’ll suggest bidding 0.12 for 32 DIA Sep 140-135 put spreads, good till canceled. If you can leg it on for 0.10 or less, double the position size to 64. Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (July 31 at 11:10 p.m.):  Based on chat room discussion yesterday, some of you have been working on the spread, including at least one trader who filled (via legging it on) at 0.12.  Let’s hear from a few more of you before I designate this one as an ‘official’ position. _______ UPDATE (August 1 at 1:265 p.m. EDT):  A good rule of thumb for options spreaders is that if the spread is not difficult to buy, then we should not want to buy it.  With DIA trading sharply higher today, I’m still enthused about buying put spreads on this possible hoax-of-a-rally. However, I’m going to suggest putting a contingency on the order nonetheless. Accordingly, you should lower the bid to 0.11 if DIA is trading 155.80 or higher, but below 156.20.  Above that last price, you should bid 0.10 — for 64 spreads.