Is the market topping here? We’re betting on it, although with relatively little at risk. Specifically, subscribers have bought some cheap, out-of-the money put spreads in DIA that have the potential to pay off at 45-to-1.  The maximum gain if the stock market falls apart in the weeks ahead would be $16,000. Although four-and-a-half years into a relentless bull market, odds will always be against our predicting the precise timing of a collapse, I doubt if I’d lay someone attempting it more than 10-to-1. That’s why we took the bet — a value proposition, even though we’ll get no payoff for ‘show’ or ‘place’.

Meanwhile, we continue to dance around a potential short in the E-Mini S&P using a longstanding target at 1708.75.  I’ve not going to profess that merely ‘knowing’ that the futures could top at or very near that number makes shorting it any easier. We’ve been attempting to do so using the ‘camouflage’ entry technique, and although traders could conceivably have racked up some gains on trades attempted so far that didn’t work out, hitting a short just before the E-Mini tanks is always going to be challenging. Indeed, with the broad averages in pooch-screwing mode for the last month, a trader could have gone crazy looking for an ideal shorting opportunity on the lesser charts.