DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:152.78)

My gut feeling is that stocks are entering a high-odds window for a collapse.  Although I doubt it will occur in time to push our September 140-135 put spreads into the promised land (we hold 16 of them effectively for free), I wouldn’t be surprised if the broad averages fall with a vengeance immediately after September expiration.  Accordingly, let’s try to buy a dozen October 140 puts for 0.46 today. My goal is to short-sell some October 135 puts against them for at least as much so that we again have no risk. The Dow would need to rise by about 120 points today to get us filled on the 140s, but I’ll adjust the price if it looks out of reach. To stay apprised in real time, tune to the chat room or check the ‘E-Mail Notifications’ box on your My Account page. ________ UPDATE (September 10):  The OPM (Other People’s Money) lunatics have control of the stock market right now, so there’s no great urgency about buying the puts (which we missed getting yesterday by 2 cents when they traded no lower than 0.48.)  Because DIA-mania has pushed well above the red line (aka ‘p’) of the ABC pattern shown (see inset, a fresh chart), we should look for more upside over the near term to at least 151.23.  Accordingly, I’ll suggest buying 12 October 140 puts if DIA gets within 0.05 of that number.  The puts will be worth about 39 cents at that point, but you should pay no more than 41 cents for them in any case. If you buy them, stop yourself out if they trade down to 29 cents.  Our theoretical risk for this speculative play would be $156 plus commissions. ________ UPDATE (5:45 p.m. EDT): Subscribers reported fills at 0.39, so the position is official.  Stop yourself out of the puts if they trade down to 0.29, as recommended above, since $120 is about as much as we should risk getting in front of a speeding locomotive. If the position does get stopped out we’ll try, try again whenever the odds look fat. ______ UPDATE (September 11, 1:41 p.m. EDT): With the Dow up nearly 100 points today, we exited the position on a 0.29 stop for a loss of $120 plus commissions.