My gut feeling is that the 1767.00 rally target we originally advertised here several weeks ago will turn out to have been a great place to get short. No subscribers have reported doing so in the way I advised, which would have entailed reversing a long position held from 1759.00 or lower. (We had identified the 1767.00 target when ES was trading nearly 40 points lower, so there were plenty of opportunities to surf the bull’s final big wave.)  The intention of this strategy was to cushion the pain of riding a last-gasp thrust above the target. As it happened, a big cushion would have been needed, since the actual high so far has been 1773.25.

Be that as it may, I just conversed in the chat room with a  subscriber who shorted this vehicle moments ago, in the early evening, using a ‘camo’ pattern on the 3-minute chart (see inset). The theoretical entry risk of 3.00 points per contract was more than we might typically abide when trading this vehicle with camouflage, but I am going to establish a tracking position nonetheless since it will allow me to follow-through on my very strong feeling that we have indeed caught a major top. Accordingly, based on price action that is occurring as I write these words, I’ll track two short contracts with a cost basis of 1760.75 that is well off the recent high.  This implies four contracts shorted initially from 1757.25 (the green line shown), with two of them covered very quickly and for a small profit, as is our practice, at the 1753.75 midpoint pivot (red line).  For now, a stop-loss is advised at 1761.25 for the two contracts that remain, o-c-o (one-cancels-other) with an order to cover a single contract at 1746.50. If successful, we’ll have one contract remaining to swing for the fences, effectively without risk.  _______ UPDATE (11:07 a.m. EDT):  About 20 minutes into the session, traders exited on a stop at 1761.25 with no gain or loss. The violent flailing around this morning could be a death rattle. In any case, we’ll keep trying, since I still think the recent high at 1773.25 is a good bet to have been the final high of the bull market.