GOOG – Google (Last:1011.65)

I’ll use a 0.65 fill [revised to 0.47 — see update below] reported in the chat room yesterday as our cost basis for eight November 1000-1010 call spreads recommended for purchase a while back. Weak as the stock was, the spread could have been bought for as little as 0.30 intraday.  Because Google is not likely to make much headway with The Shutdown weighing on the stock market, I’ll now recommend offering the November 1010-1020 call spread eight times for 0.65 or better. If we succeed, we will have legged into butterfly spreads that could produce a profit of as much as $1000 apiece without risk. It will require a rally of perhaps 16-18 points to get us filled, however, and if it fails to materialize, I may advise a stop-loss for the spread we already hold.  Price action near the 863.63 midpoint pivot of the pattern shown implies that Google could fall to 851.58 if the support fails.  The 858.41 target of a larger pattern could help break the fall, or perhaps even engender the rally we’d be looking to short via the Nov 1010-1020 spread.  _______ UPDATE (8:24 p.m. EDT):  The low of yesterday’s 14-point swoon occurred at 851.63, a nickel from the 851.58 target flagged above. However, because there were no reports in the chat room of anyone getting aboard, I will not be tracking a trade.  Meanwhile, I am still waiting to hear from traders who got filled on the call spread, since the 0.65 price mentioned above was achieved by a trader who forgot he’d left the order in.  If I don’t hear from anyone else, I’ll assume nothing done and drop guidance. _______ UPDATE (October 9, 8:09 p.m. EDT):  Fills down to 0.38 have been reported, but I’ll use a mid-range price at 0.47 as our new basis. As before, you should offer eight November 1010-1020 call spreads against the ones we hold, but for a minimum 0.50 rather than 0.65, good till canceled. It closed yesterday on a 0.25 offer, and it will therefore take a sustained rally to get us filled. ________ UPDATE (October 18): The 55-point rally from October 9’s 843 low brought the Nov 1010-1020 call spread for 0.50 well within range, but I’ll wait to hear from subscribers who filled the order before I record it for tracking purposes.  ________ UPDATE (11:04 a.m.)  Google’s stunning, $120 breakaway gap this morning has allowed subscribers to complete the butterfly spreads for a credit of as much as 3.00 per spread. Those who did would have locked in a guaranteed profit of at least $2400 for the eight spreads (on initial risk of about $400), but that amount could grow by a further $8000, to $10400, if Google is trading at exactly 1010 come November expiration. In practice, it will be difficult to extract the full $10 of value per butterfly, since the 1010 calls we are short would have ‘juice’ in them on expiration day that significantly exceeds whatever time premium is still in the 1000s we’d be long. For tracking purposes, I’m going to assume the short Nov 1010-1020 spreads filled for $3.00. In practice, subscribers reported that they had not done the butterfly, but that they had simply been long the original eight November 1000-1010 call spreads when the stock exploded this morning. Their instant, realized gains ranged from $3200  to $5600, based on an initial risk of less than $400.  _______ UPDATE (October 21): Please let me know in the chat room what you’ve got left, since the butterfly (for which I will record a $3.00 credit) still has a month to go before it expires.  _______ UPDATE (October 21, 11:14 a.m. EDT): Based on subscribers’ reports in the chat room, I’ll track eight November 1000-1010-1020 call butterflys for a very conservative $3 credit. We’ll look to exit them for 4.00 or better (and an implied profit of $5600, or as much as $11,200), but that goal is well out of range at the moment. The butterfly is currently quoted on a bid/offer of 0.80 / 1.70. It will become an easier sale for $4.00 if the stock hangs out near $1010. The main factor increasing our profit would be hot air coming out of the still-juiced November 1010 calls that we are short.