Bill Mauldin’s latest commentary warns that the Fed may be about to lose control of interest rates, mainly because a dangerously irresolute Helicopter Ben chickened out after telling the world he was going to taper. So much for the Fed chairman’s crucial ability to inspire fear on Wall Street.  But is there any technical evidence to support a prediction that interest rates are about to rise and bond prices to fall, ostensibly because actual forces of supply and demand will finally have their day now that Bernanke’s credibility is gone?

I considered two charts in search of an answer, and it turns out to depend on which of the two charts you trust more. The regular weekly chart for the December contract is bullish, implying lower rates and perhaps even a new bull market are coming. But the composite version displayed below it is less encouraging, implying that prices could go either way. On balance, I’ll bet on the former, at least for now, since the highs and lows that are crucial to my analytical method are actual rather than ‘blended’. Another reason I favor the regular weekly chart is that, from much higher levels, it predicted the September low within half a point.

Even so, the futures will now have to pull back a bit more, to at least 131^19, then stage a ‘booster’ rally of at least  1^12 points, to get airborne, and to do so with sufficient power to imply that the bond prices are indeed headed significantly higher (and yields therefore lower).