ESH14 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1822.75)

If sure things exist in the world of technical forecasting, then the impending rally to exactly 1841.00 is one of them.  In the accompanying chart, notice how the 1818.00 midpoint Hidden Pivot has been literally pivotal to the futures ups and downs this week. First, on Sunday evening’s opening bar, the gap up through it all but guaranteed that the rally will continue to at least 1841.00. And then yesterday, the session’s deepest pullback, which occurred on the opening bar, bottomed at 1818.25, a single tick from the pivot.  The futures obviously ‘know’ that Hidden Pivot constraints are there, and it remains only for March contract to rally to the 1841.00 ‘D’ target of the pattern to complete the minor bull cycle begin last Wednesday.

Trading this precise, ostensibly useful, intelligence is another matter, since bulls are taking their sweet old time getting to the target.  Yesterday’s tedious fluctuations were essentially untradable.  However, traders should be prepared for an out-of-the-blue surge, which could occur outside of regular hours or perhaps via a short-squeeze at the opening bell. In any case, I’d suggest using the 2-minute chart or lower to find the minor ABC pattern that can get you aboard with relatively little risk. Shorting 1841.00, on the other hand, can be done straightforwardly by offering a single contract at 1840.75, stop 1842.25.  If you want to increase the size of the position, then camouflage is the way to go — especially since it’s possible that a target I’ve drum-rolled as I have this one will get front-run.