In the daily interviews that I do with Al Korelin, it would appear that I’ve parted company with two adept, technically oriented gold bulls. Unlike them, I expect at least somewhat lower prices over the next few weeks. Specifically, a fall to the 1139.50 target shown is the most optimistic scenario I can imagine for the near term.  Although I never chisel such forecasts in stone, it would require an uncorrected rally to at least 1362.40 to change my mind.  This wouldn’t invalidate the bearish target itself — that would take a rally exceeding 1433.70 — but it would certainly strengthen the argument that bulls are tired of getting shoved around. Any slippage beneath 1139.50, however, would augur more weakness to at least 999.30.

One further note: My gut hunch is that an end to bullion’s bear market, now well into its third year, would be marked by a spectacular rally of perhaps $200-$300 over the course of a single day or two.  That would serve the purpose of leaving even the true believers in the dust, since they would be reluctant to jump on such a rally until it pulled back “a bit”.  It is my vivid recollection of the August 1982 explosion on Wall Street — a rally that followed a all but endless dirge and which seemed almost too powerful to believe — that has conditioned my thinking about the inevitable end to gold’s bear market.