Anyone attempting to trade yesterday’s nervous dithering would have found it difficult to identify an appealing opportunity over the six-hour stretch. In the chat room, I opted for a short, fruitless ride higher in the throes of an overbearingly down day, but only because it was the first easily exploitable ‘camo’ trade signaled after the opening bell. The day’s ups and downs were all calibrated in some fashion to the news, which was highlighted by an Obama threat to ‘isolate’ Russia economically, with Europe’s help, if Putin doesn’t stand down. Got that now? Europeans are going to boycott Russian natural gas and shiver for the rest of the winter. Right.
Whatever happens next, it’s hard to imagine stocks rallying in the days ahead if the news concerning Ukraine comes mostly from the White House. Under the circumstances, we might expect shares to meander lower, perhaps doubling Monday’s modest 150-point loss in the Dow by week’s end. If Russian troops should open fire, though, be ready for an instant 300-point drop to the 15807 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown. Worst case, if things turn very bloody, would be a plunge to 15217. Keep in mind that this would not happen because anyone on Wall Street actually cares about events in Ukraine, but because those who throw Other People’s Money at the market are on a hair-trigger in order to beat their colleagues to the punch. A case of ‘monkey do’ as monkey nervously expects other monkeys to do.