ESM14 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1818.00)

Yesterday’s price action was the stock market’s equivalent to rectal itch, about which no one but a proctologist at a medical meeting should have much to say. It provided no clues about whether the next big move will be higher or lower; it was best traded by betting against the continuation of any trend that looked like it was about to become even remotely interesting; and it pointed to no particular outcome on Tuesday. That said, I have reproduced a daily chart to remind you that the bear leg begun last Thursday is strongly impulsive. Bulls could dispense with the threat thereof by rallying this vehicle to new record highs, which would exceed the requisite two prior peaks on the daily chart. Failing that, however, they will need to make their stand at the midpoint pivot of whatever follow-through c-d decline is about to occur. I have sketched this out, since price action at the still undetermined ‘p’ will be crucial to our understanding of the much bigger picture. _______ UPDATE (11:04 a.m. ET): Assuming today’s 1837.25 high holds, the chart accompanying this tout projects minimum downside to p=1805.00, or a worst-case low over the near term at D=1773.00. This morning’s ‘obligatory head fake’ was not exactly unexpected.