ESM14 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1885.75)

Two steps forward, one-and-a-quarter steps back. I’d said somewhat facetiously that it might take forever for this vehicle to reach a very modest rally target at 1917.25, a minor Hidden Pivot, but I’m starting to fear that I may not have exaggerated.  The problem is that none of the clowns who make their living throwing Other People’s Money at the market are any more bullish on stocks than you or I.  With the real estate sector’s dead-cat bounce at an end, and retail sales not getting much lift from the supposed trough of a snowy winter, even the clowns are having trouble finding excuses to push shares to new record heights. The result is that any buying whatsoever would have to come from short-covering, which requires good news for fuel. But how good can the news get?  The stimulus story has been milked for all that it’s worth, and headlines from the geopolitical world suggests only that America’s standing in the world has collapsed under the leadership of the most grossly inept, unqualified man ever to occupy the White House. From a technical standpoint, and most immediately, look for the expected finishing stroke to 1917.25 once the correction begun from yesterday’s feeble peak has run its course. Night owls should look to do any bottom-fishing at the midpoint-pivot supports or ‘d’ targets of downtrends visible on the 5-minute chart.  The chart shows a couple of such price points for your further guidance. _______ UPDATE (5:09 p.m.):  Given today’s carnage, it might be more correct to say of the stock market that it’s been ‘one step forward, five steps back’.  Have we entered a bear market? Or will stocks have one last hurrah, trapping bulls at record heights with one swift, fatal blow?  I am adjusting my own thoughts about such matters on-the-fly, factoring evidence that continues to accumulate daily.