The $5 downdraft we saw in April seemed pretty nasty at the time, but there should be no doubt about the long-term trend, which remains quite bullish. In the continuous weekly chart shown, crude appears bound for a minimum $119 — or perhaps $122 if we use the slightly lower point ‘A’ available. You could argue that the move is merely corrective relative to the July 2008 top at $148, and that would be technically correct. But that interpretation still leaves a lot of running room for a ‘merely’ corrective rally to run its course. In that respect, $119 should be viewed as an easy target, even if it implies that energy consumers around the world would be stressed to the max. From a trading perspective, nearly all patterns are in bullish alignment at the moment, implying that your bias should be bullish as well. _______ UPDATE (June 10, 1:16 a.m.): Expect yesterday’s steep ascent to reach the 105.27 target shown before crude consolidates for another installment on the 119 target flagged above. _______ UPDATE (June 18, 1:57 p.m. EDT): For your guidance, I’m tracking a long in August Crude, since a trader reported buying there off a clear target at 105.37 that missed the actual low by a penny. (60-min, a=106.74 on 6/16). It was derived from coordinates equivalent to those given for the July contract. The subscribe interpolated to August because volume has shifted into that month ahead of the official shift on Friday. The subsequent 62-cent rally in the August allowed for partial profit-taking, so I’ve lowered the basis on the two contracts that remain to 104.99. This is slightly below the d target of a=106.30 from 10:00 a.m. this morning. p=105.51 has been slightly exceeded, but the jury is still out on a follow-through to d. _______ UPDATE (Jun 26, 1:16 p.m. ET): In erratic fashion, the futures have maintained altitude since I began tracking a long position, reaching a rally high thus far of 107.50. However, with no recent reports in the chat room to indicate further interest, I’ll be retiring this tout and ending my guidance.
