Although my long-term forecast calls for a rally to new record highs, the ponderous toppiness we’ve seen lately suggests the futures may have to fall at least somewhat lower before they can move significantly higher.  That would give them the running start they need to blast free of supply that has been accumulating since early March. In the accompanying chart, notice that the bull market has stalled almost precisely at 1887.00, a ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’  indicated by the red line. Although it would require a crystal ball to know whether the S&Ps will eventually break through it, should that happen it would strongly support the case for a continuation to — precisely  — 1970.50, the next major Hidden Pivot above.

Meanwhile, there can be no assurances that the correction-then-a-running-start scenario will play out to the satisfaction of Wall Street.  Indeed, with the real estate sector relapsing, possibly fatally, and Fed stimulus barely able to sustain even marginal GDP growth, it seems most improbable that significant new highs await.  Regardless, any fall from these levels will gain increasing authority, if not to say ominousness, with each prior low it exceeds on the daily chart. Two such lows would be breached on a mere 18-point decline to 1843.75.  Two others, both more significant, would have to give way before we could know almost for certain that the bull begun 62 months ago is over.