How Much of a Rally Will It Take to Gut the Last Bear?

Whatever reservations investors may have had on Tuesday about the dismal drift of the global economy, they turned wantonly ebullient yesterday on the momentous news that the Fed was fixing to do…nothing. Actually, news stories attempting to parse the latest FOMC minutes suggested that internal debate has heated up over the question of when the Masters of the Universe will begin to throttle credit. For our part, we’ll stick with the same prediction about this that we’ve been making for about the last ten years: NEVER.

Many investors evidently feel the same way, since they were able to lift the Dow 275 points on Wednesday on word that nothing had changed.  This was the most explosive rally in recent memory, and although nearly all of the buying may have been done by short-covering bears and momentum players, particularly the algos, permabears shouldn’t stick their heads in the sand waiting for the fury to subside.

For the record, we remain convinced the stock market is in the throes of a major topping process. If there is reason to think it could achieve yet another record high, it stems from the fact that bears are still getting hammered worse than bulls. Yes, there undoubtedly will come a time when bulls will be puking their guts out on declines rather than buying the dips. But for now, it is bears who are in Mr. Market’s crosshairs, reluctant as they are to give up on shorting THE top — and to stay short more or less forever. How high might the broad averages need to go to cause shorts to throw in the towel?  I’ve dredged up an old DJIA target that may hold the answer.  For details, check out today’s tout — or if you don’t subscribe, click here for a free two-week trial to Rick’s Picks.