NFLX – Netflix (Last:330.00)

I don’t often come to NFLX’s defense, mainly because their streaming catalogue sucks, and because their vaunted film-selection algorithm long ago lost its ability to pick movies that I might find especially entertaining. I also saw no particular genius in their recent four-picture deal with the very unfunny and untalented Adam Sandler, although a reader pointed out that even Sandler’s worst films — I recommend ‘The Waterboy’ if you want to benchmark the concept of ‘worst’– seem to rack up pretty decent numbers overseas.

That said, yesterday’s selloff in after-hours trading seemed just a smidgen overdone. The stock gapped down $115 in the blink of an eye — a 25% discount from the price that supposedly all-seeing, all-knowing investors, in their collective wisdom, had deemed perfect just hours earlier. There was a hit-piece out on the Web yesterday suggesting NFLX has too many aggressive competitors to carve out a solid niche. Although this is probably correct, they seem to know how to grow revenues globally, and the company’s management is regarded by many — my astute friend Steve Gilburne among them — as having the best management team in the corporate world.

Although the foregoing amounts to a mixed bag of plusses and minuses, on a purely technical basis the stock’s plunge has not yet fatally damaged the bullish look of its long-term chart. The huge drop was bearishly impulsive, to be sure, but we’d need to see it take out the two numbered lows (see inset) before sounding Taps.  Our hunch is that if there’s going to be a next great buying opportunity, it will not be by way of a catch-the-falling piano bid this time around, but on a subsequent, would-be correction of the next big bounce.