USZ14 – December T-Bonds (Last:142^21)

I’ve suggested buying out-of-the-money calendar spreads in TLT on weakness, but there have been few opportunities to do so because T-Bonds have been in a very steep, nearly relentless run-up since mid-September (see inset). We may get our chance soon, though, since, as you can see, T-Bond futures are very close to a clear Hidden Pivot rally target at 140^30 that has been nine weeks in coming. If the futures were to correct here, the implication is that they would build thrust for yet another leg up to 142^28, a Hidden Pivot target derived from A=133^01 (July 3). ______ UPDATE (October 9, 12:29 a.m. EDT):  The futures have pulled back slightly after making an intraday high at 140^29, a single tick from the target given above. We’ll look to adjust our position in TLT if the correction continues for a couple of days. Another possibility that must be considered is that we are witnessing a monster rally a-borning. Although we’ve never doubted that the bull market in Treasuries was capable of achieving much higher highs, we had always assumed this would be catalyzed by a global panic into the ostensible safety of U.S. paper.  Although it seems unlikely that the meltdown we’ve dreaded and predicted for so long is actually under way, perhaps this is only because we are psychologically unprepared for it. Why so? Mainly, because it implies that our way of life, economically speaking, is conceivably about to change more drastically than most of us would care to imagine. _______ UPDATE (October 14, 8:25 a.m. Eastern): The futures have just reached, and slightly overshot, the target identified above. This hints of enormous buying power still percolating beneath the surface, since the Hidden Pivot exceeded is about as clear as they come on the daily chart. I’ve been eager to try to leg into vertical bull call spreads in TLT on weakness, but there’s been precious little weakness to work with. We’ll keep looking for the right opportunity nonetheless, so stay tuned to the chat room if you want to stay apprised in real time.