I’m struggling to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls, but I can’t ignore the fact that every minor abc rally since last Friday’s explosive one has failed at its midpoint pivot. This is typically a sign that the dominant trend — in this case, the explosive rally, to give it the benefit of the doubt — isn’t destined to go very far. A particularly telling aspect of yesterday’s constipated price action is that the second attempted rally failed to get past the very modest peak of the first. Clearly, there is no real buying interest here, even if the right headline could change that for a short while. For now, and still giving bulls the benefit of the doubt, we’ll look for a finishing stroke to the 1179.10 target shown. A quick and easy move past it would of course put the 1194.10 target flagged here earlier in play. _______ UPDATE (7:08 a.m. EST): There has been no ‘white knight’ in the form of a headline felicitous toward Gold — “Terrorists Nuke L.A.” ?? — and so the futures have taken the path of least resistance overnight — i.e., lower. If there’s any life left in them, they will turn from 1148.00; or if not there, from 1141.50. Either of these minor Hidden Pivots (60-minute, A=1162.00 on 11/13 at 9:00 p.m.) can be bottom-fished with a bid a tick above the pivot and a stop-loss as tight as four ticks. ______ UPDATE (8:30 a.m.): Don’t think that because the futures “only” exceeded the 1148.00 HP support given above by 0.70, that it’s doing okay. It’s not. Notwithstanding the so far $4.60 rally off the 1147.30 low, when a Hidden Pivot as clear as this one is exceeded by even five ticks, it is foretelling yet more weakness. ______ UPDATE (3:55 p.m.): Moments after I posted the despairing update above, the futures exploded higher, recording an 1192.90 peak that missed my original rally target at 1194.10 by an inch. I am skeptical and will explain why in a new tout to be published Sunday evening. More immediately, however, I can only adhere to the mechnical discipline of my charts, as I should have Friday morning. The intraday charts are of course bullish at the moment — perhaps tradably so. Stay tuned.
