April Gold did precisely what we asked of it on Friday, but little more. I’d projected an easy move to 1186.70 if buyers easily dispatched a Hidden Pivot midpoint at 1172.70. This they did, in the wee hours of Friday morning, eventually achieving an intraday high of 1187.40. Although that slightly exceeded my target, the overshoot was not sufficient for us to infer that significant buying power remained to be spent over the near term. That could change when the markets open Sunday evening, but I wouldn’t get excited over a move merely to the 1194.00 target shown. That would do no more than extend Friday’s rally to the maximum target of the pattern we’d used to project to project the original one at 1186.70. If bulls are to demonstrate that they’ve got significantly more in mind, let them telegraph it with a thrust exceeding the 1197.70 ‘external’ peak recorded on 3/6 (see inset). It is subtle enough that a BC-type pullback from just above it could provide an excellent if belated boarding opportunity for bulls who have been on the sidelines. Entry below those levels, if warranted, will be difficult at best, even using the ‘camouflage’ technique, because there are few handholds to leverage along the steep wall of the decline that occurred on March 6. _______ UPDATE (March 23, 9:27 p.m. EDT): Yesterday’s timid rally was not very encouraging, but the analysis above can stand as given, at least for now. _______ UPDATE (March 24, 4:31): Today’s equally timid rally topped at 1194.50, just 0.50 from where I’d predicted. Bulls will have to do better than that to warrant our enthusiasm. The next step up would be to a minor Hidden Pivot target at 1197.10. As always, an easy move through it would offer the sort of encouragement we look for. _______ UPDATE (March 25, 2:50 p.m.): The futures bettered my target, but not by much; they hit 1199.30. The only reason the rally exceeded the target was that the round number 1200.00 exerted some magnetic pull. This is neither encouraging nor discouraging. The minor trend remains bullish nonetheless and projects to 1207.40 (see inset, a new chart). If you plan to initiate a long position, you’ll be on your own, since the best opportunity to do so is likely to occur in the dead of night. _______ UPDATE (March 26, 3:26 a.m.): An easy move through the 1207.40 pivot would be encouraging, but it will take no less than an uncorrected rally exceeding 1236.80 by tomorrow to suggest bulls are about to trample sellers on their way to — initially — 1318.30.
