ESM15 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:2039.75)

ES 2174.50 target will be in playA trader’s head could spin trying to make sense of Friday’s fleeting plunge. Dismal payroll data was released on a holiday when most markets were closed, but that evidently didn’t stop a privileged few institutional scumballs from unloading index futures two days ahead of the crowd. Electronic trading went on for about 45 minutes after news was released that America’s on-again, off-again economic recovery had generated a paltry 126,000 jobs in March — the fewest since 2013. S&P futures plunged 1% in the 45 minutes that traders were allotted to get a jump start on the herd. Ordinarily, the dirtballs’ goal would be to exhaust supply on bad news by dropping their bids to levels that would be bargains even if the world were about to end. This time, however, it seemed there was unfinished business at the bell — i.e., more selling to do in order to fully discount the awfulness of the payroll news.

Whatever the case, I’d suggest using the stair-step targets shown in the chart to gauge the urgency of selling Sunday night. As always, even a small overshoot of a ‘D’ target would imply more downside to the next. Keep in mind that bad news is no longer necessarily good news, since most observers still (wrongly) expect the Fed to tighten no matter how bad the economy gets. Fed-watchers — mindless sheep to a man — will have their hands full trying to figure out which way Fed blather is about to zig or zag in order to manage our expectations. Rather than go dizzy trying to figure it all out, simply use the targets I’ve provided. It will also be helpful if you tune out the headlines and the benighted analysis of economists and other bozos who shill for the Fed. They know nothing, while the charts know everything. _______ UPDATE (12:08 p.m. EDT):  Sellers were their usual, gutless selves, allowing DaBoyz to reverse the downtrend and apply a short-squeeze at the opening that is still in progress. Note in the new chart the eye-appealing target at 2174.50. It would become an odds-on bet if the futures are able to push past p=2102.75 decisively.