GCM15 – June Gold (Last:1177.90)

Gold's decisive breach wouldAlthough lately I’ve been treating a longstanding bear-market target in the low $800s as practically a done deal, my trading partner, John Boutiette reminded me last week that, from a purely technical standpoint, such an outcome would not even become probable, let alone certain, until sellers trash the 1120.50 midpoint support shown. So far, the low of the 43-month-old bear market is 1134.10, leaving about $13 of room before we have reason for deep concern. And just to be sure, I’ll stipulate that the June contract close beneath 1120.50 for two consecutive months before we assume the 808.50 target is in play. Meanwhile, that midpoint support should be regarded not only as a minimum downside objective for now, but as a potential spot to try bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss. _______ UPDATE (1:42 a.m.): Something has pushed the futures into a moderate rally early Monday morning. On the 10-minute chart, where A=1176.90 at 9:10 p.m., it points to a minimum 1185.70, subject to possible Hidden Pivot (p2) resistance at 1184.50.