GCM15 – June Gold (Last:1195.20)

Gold's failure to breach pA Rick’s Picks ‘lurker’ asked whether a longstanding target in the low $800s is still valid.  Indeed it is, as the chart clearly shows. Moreover, it would take a rally exceeding the 1432.90 point ‘C’ of the pattern to invalidate the target. If you are inclined to supplement coldly rational technical analysis with a smidgen of hopefulness — not something I would recommend, actually — then, yes, there is room for that here, since the futures have yet to exceed to the downside the 1125.20 midpoint pivot of the pattern. Failing to do so is a common feature of healthy bull markets, and a failure precisely at the midpoint as has occurred here is even more encouraging. But there is a double-edged sword in this interpretation, since if the support fails badly, a further decline to as low as $817.50 would become significantly more likely. _______ UPDATE (8:50 a.m. EDT): If you’ve been waiting patiently to jump on a rally, the first decent one we’ve seen in  at least a week was over in about 16 minutes shortly before dawn.  Two whack-o price bars that were manifestly untradable pushed the futures to a so-far intraday high of 1196.30. Suspiciously, the rally failed to exceed a key ‘internal’ peak at 1199.30 recorded on May 5. That is also the point ‘C’ high of a bearish pattern projecting to 1155.60, and if buyers can’t get past it today or tomorrow, look for a relapse to that number.