As predicted, the easiest trade of the day came yet again in the dead of night. Specifically, the futures dove 18 points after topping exactly-to-the-tick at a 2096.50 Hidden Pivot resistance I’d flagged here yesterday in an annotated chart. I erred in predicting the opportunity would trigger at 4:00 a.m., when traders shift their venue from Europe to the U.S. But the bottom line is unchanged in that nearly every trade worth doing in this vehicle is occurring when only a relative handful of U.S. traders are awake to take advantage. This one could have been worth as much as $875 per contract to insomniacs in the U.S. Since only one Rick’s Picks subscriber belatedly reported having done the trade, I have not established a tracking position. But traders in time zones east of New York should monitor my index-future touts closely, since they often provide opportunities far juicier than the ones we’ve been seeing during regular market hours.
Concerning yesterday’s nitwit histrionics, brought on by whatever Yellen is thought to have said, they left a 2107.75 rally target broached here earlier intact. Because it has been confirmed by the precise pullback from p2=2096.50, you could short it with a very tight stop-loss. Officially, however, I am recommending the trade only if you have been long on the way up. Based on a current price of 2088.25, that would imply profit potential of as much as $487 per contract — quite a cushion for any stop-loss you use to get short. _______ UPDATE (11:24 a.m. EDT): Buyers blew past 2107.75, putting the 2113.25 target of a larger pattern in play. The futures topped there moments ago, but if they push past it, the next stop would likely be 2118.75. Since that could well be the end of the line for today’s wilding spree, I’ll suggest shorting there provided you we long for at least a piece of the rally. ______ UPDATE (12:59 a.m.): The futures have apparently topped for now at 2119.25 — two ticks above my target. In the chat room, for the benefit of those who got short as advised, I suggested cashing out half of the position for a then-current 2115.25 (now 2114.25). If you are short just one contract, use an impulsive stop based on the one-minute chart. Currently that would imply stopping yourself out on an uncorrected rally touching 2117.50. _______ UPDATE (1:50 p.m.): With the futures now trading 2111.50, take profits on an additional 25% of any short position still held. If you began with just one contract, an impulsive stop on the one-minute chart would currently take you out on an uncorrected rally touching 2115.50.