I’ve hauled out a long-term chart because nothing of consequence has occurred in Silver futures in months — just two gratuitous price humps that have left them sitting almost exactly where they were on St. Patrick’s Day. The weekly chart tells a more interesting story, however, especially since the pattern shown has been well corroborated by numerous tops and bottoms centered on the 17.970 midpoint pivot. The picture suggests that July contract will eventually fall to 10.820 before the bear market begun a little more than four years ago has run its course. How likely is this? I’d say the odds are about 60%, although they would decrease to around 30% if the futures were to rally above the external peak I’ve marked at 21.525. In the meantime, we can trade this vehicle from either side of the market, based on the trend in whatever time frame we choose.
