ESU15 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:2021.00)

Index futures react to Asia sellingAt press time, the futures were in a relatively steep dive that has taken out Thursday’s lows while exceeding the 1124.50 Hidden Pivot target that was my worst-case projection for the day. My guess is that the move is news-driven — but that it needn’t have been, since the futures looked primed to fall anyway. I doubt whether I’ll know for sure what the news is before this tout goes out to you, since, if you can see it getting discounted in real time, the perps who are doing the discounting are undoubtedly wired to sources far subtler and less obtainable than, say, finance.yahoo.com. My guess, however, is that it is simply a feedback loop caused by selling in Asian markets that was catalyzed by the earlier selling in U.S. markets. Stocks are too volatile for me to suggest a specific trade at the moment, but night owls should use the pattern shown to gauge the strength of the downtrend. The immediate target is 2008.25, nine points below current levels, but if it’s easily exceeded, look out below.  Paradoxically, you can be bolder trading Hidden Pivot levels when stocks are moving sharply. As you may have observed on Thursday, HP targets work with even greater accuracy than we’ve grown accustomed to when stocks are quietly range-trading. _______ UPDATE (7:49 a.m. EDT): My target caught the overnight low within two ticks. The ensuing 20-point bounce could have been worth as much as $1000 per contract  to anyone who got aboard. The rally failed to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, but we should monitor this ‘illegitimate’ pattern nonetheless to gauge the strength of the bounce, which was continuing at this time: a=2012.00 (2 a.m.); b= 2028.75 (5:30); and c= 2017.75.  A buy signal has already been tripped at x=2122.00, but it will probably be less risky to short at p=2026.25, or D=2034.50, since this is the countertrend of a move which appears to have further to go.