A Drexel Hill analyst’s prediction that AAPL, currently trading for around $110, will hit $200 a share sent me to the long-term charts to see who’s crazy, me or them. Drexel believes iPhone sales in China will ultimately boost sales very significantly. I’m not so sure myself, but I’ve been bearish on the stock for other reasons that have continued to accumulate, to wit: 1) Incredibly, with the release of iPhone6, Apple has once again failed to address its embarrassing battery problem, still the elephant in the room; 2) it won’t be long before Xiaomi sells a phone for $60 that can do everything the $600 iPhone does; 3) Apple’s insane profit margins, driven by clamorous cult buying, are far more vulnerable to a global economic downturn than competitors’ margins; 4) Apple has entered the streaming music business 12 years behind the leader, Spotify; 5) Apple has entered the car business a hundred-and-twelve years behind the pioneer, Ford; 6) Apple teamed with Hermes to produce a wristwatch so un-revolutionary that it probably has Steve Jobs turning in his grave. So much for being on the cutting edge. What’s next for Apple — an upscale toaster oven? An iFood processor? iChocolates?
From personal experience, I can also attest that Apple’s software is getting almost as annoying as Microsoft’s. Two-thousand mp3 music files disappeared from my PC-based iTunes — twice — for no apparent reason. I had to re-import them into the application both times to get them to play again. You would think their “Genius Bar” would have an instant fix, but you’d be wrong. Instead, they pretended I’m the first PC guy who has ever come to them with the problem and that they have no idea what is causing it. Yeah, sure.
As Greedy as Microsoft
Even worse is the story of a friend and long-time Apple proselytizer who discovered last week that all of his emails had been deleted — permanently. This happened ostensibly because Apple has gotten as greedy as Microsoft in requiring users to update their hardware and software constantly — far more often than most customers would deem necessary. My friend’s problems began when he tried to update his iPhone and got a message that he would need to update iTunes first. Simple? Guess again. The latest iTunes would require him to update his iPhone’s operating system, and therefore to update his Apple computer’s operating system. He tried, but wound up with his computer frozen, his emails gone forever, and his cell phone, although working, no longer capable of playing iTunes. Apple’s tech support guy conceded that this wasn’t the first call he’d handled concerning this nasty cluster of problems.
From a technical standpoint, I’d have to concede there’s no reason why AAPL could not rally to new all-time highs, or even to $200 a share. If this is going to happen, the stock could first fall all the way to 96.41, a ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’, before bouncing, and still look promising. More bullish still would be a rally to new highs without AAPL’s even having fallen to 96.41. We shall see. As always, I will let my unbiased technical indicators guide me. Whatever happens, I’d be tempted to short a rally to marginal new highs if there’s a clear price target associated with the move.