I’m tracking a single-contract short position with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 1176.90, a price objective of 1044.50 and a stop-loss recently lowered to 1111.40. The relentless decline of the last month has brought the futures down to a precarious resting spot just $10 above July’s key low at 1073.70. I expect it to be breached, although that won’t necessarily spell disaster.  A sharp rally “should” occur immediately thereafter, since the suffocating weight of prayerful bulls will be gone, stopped out by a dip beneath a level that too many of them are likely counting on for support. It is the extent of the snap-back rally that will matter, and a relatively feeble one would be telling. For if the futures cannot bounce at least $30 after piercing 1073.70, I’d infer they are on their way down to 1044.50 at least; and thence to an obligatory test of $1000, where they haven’t been for six years. Below this watershed sit two more targets, either of which could mark the end of the bear market begun in August 2011: 971.35 (see inset) or, my worst case, 817.50.  _______ UPDATE (10:59 a.m. ET): The expected Whoopee Cushion rally — it came from a low at 1073.00 that lay just 0.70 beneath the critical support I’d flagged —  was a relatively feeble 16 points.  This was such a poor showing that we should look for bulls to try again either Friday or Sunday night. It’s hard to imagine them rolling over without putting up a fight.