ESH16 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1878.25)

Sliding 'A' downThe short squeeze that rattled bears so badly on Friday went flatter than an apple in a cider press on Monday. DaBoyz were unable, even, to goose this vehicle above Sunday night’s painfully achieved high. The result was a day of tedium alleviated only when the floor gave way in the final half of the session, sending the futures below an 1873.00 target I’d flagged in the chat room.  This hints of more weakness to come, possibly gaining momentum if the usual suspects can’t levitate this brick in the early going on Tuesday. The outlook is worsened by bulls’ failure Sunday night to surpass the 1907.50 peak recorded a week ago. Based on the foregoing, my current forecast emphasizes the large bearish pattern shown, with a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1842.63 that can serve as a minimum downside objective for now. As always, a weak bounce from so clear a pivot would portend more weakness at least to the next — in this case, a secondary (p2) pivot at 1811.81.  Traders can either level to get short ‘mechanically’ provided our simple criteria for this type of trade are met. If the dam bursts and this sludge-pot falls all the way to D=1781.00, make sure you’ve been short for at least the last 20 points of the joy-ride if you’re keen on bottom-fishing. _______ UPDATE (9:11 a.m. EST): It is the more modest of two downtrending ABC patterns that has prevailed overnight (see inset, a new chart). By sliding the point ‘A’ high down to the only alternative choice available, we find that the overnight low occurred within 1.25 points of the midpoint Hidden Pivot support, 1852.63. We’ll give short-covering buyers wide berth as the new day begins, even though from a ‘mechanical’ standpoint ES is a moderately appealing short from x=1878.44. A safer bet would be to initiate the mechanical short if and when p has been penetrated to the downside. The bounce is not yet bullishly impulsive, even on the hourly chart, so I can not bring much enthusiasm to the idea of getting long here.  At best, on the ’60’, we have ‘dueling’ impulse legs, with bears holding the edge.