Yesterday’s choppy rally exceeded the bullish target at 1091.10 that we’d been using to predict the course of this latest buying spree. The clear implication is that even higher prices lie ahead over the near-term. The move is especially encouraging because the target, a Hidden Pivot resistance, was a fairly important one — the highest I could have projected using the hourly chart.  Now, I’ll suggest setting an alert at 1098.10, a single tick above an important ‘external’ peak recorded on November 16. A print at that price would energize bulls for a push that could dwarf the very modest rally that has occurred since gold bottomed in mid-December near $1045.

I’ve reproduced a long-term chart lest permabulls grow excited prematurely. At the very least, just to make the monthly chart seem interesting, the futures would need to surpass the two minor peaks shown. The higher peak lies at $1232, implying a 14% rally from these levels. Thereafter, a continuing move to the green line would trip a major ‘buy’ signal for a bull-market leg that could hit $2286.  This is still (very) wishful thinking at this point, but that’s no reason to be dismissive of the relatively subdued rally that has occurred so far. For what it’s worth, it would take a rally exceeding $1433 to negate the bear-market target we’ve been using at $814. _______ UPDATE (January 7, 10:13 p.m. EST): The futures continue to make steady headway in unspectacular fashion. On the larger intraday charts, the next benchmark for bulls to shoot for is 1123.00, where a technical significant external peak was recorded in early November on the way down. A thrust exceeding it would indicate that bulls have enough energy in reserve to keep this rally going. _______ UPDATE (January 10): Gold ended the week with most of its recent gains intact. The rally looks impressive on the hourly chart, but it will take a print at 1207.60 to start looking impressive on the weekly chart. This number is specific to the February futures contract and is somewhat lower than the $1232 benchmark given above. It corresponds to an ‘external’ peak at 1207.50 recorded on June 18, just ahead of a $129 plunge that took five weeks to run its course.