Rick’s Picks’ Predictions for 2016

Melania Trump

In these all-too-interesting times, it is unfortunately a safe bet that 2016 will not be a dull year. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that everything we foresee will be bad news. To wit:

  1. Donald Trump will be our next president, sparing Americans the disgrace of electing to the highest office in the land a woman who has known only appalling failure in her political life and whose chief character trait, recognized even by her supporters, is dishonesty
  2. Surprising everyone, Trump will carve out a reputation as the Education President.  By 2018, even his worst detractors will realize that they can trust him over the education establishment to reshape our schools so that students actually learn skills needed to succeed in life.
  3. After loathing Michelle Obama and her entourage for eight years, Americans will have a love affair with Melania Trump. Mrs. Trump, who, it will soon become apparent, likes everything about America, will go on to become the most popular First Lady since Jacqueline Kennedy.
  4. Fortunately for us all, Obama will leave office a few crucial yards shy of his lifelong political goal: destroying America and everything it stands for.
  5. Obamacare, the worst piece of legislation ever enacted by Congress, will be repealed in the nick of time. However, this will happen too late to spare 100 million Americans from back-to-back, 25% increases in healthcare premiums that are coming in 2016 and 2017.
  6. Two years after our groveling Apologist-in-Chief is gone, the West will decisively rout ISIS in Syria and Iraq, freeing up resources to deal seriously with al Qaeda and the Taliban.
  7. The new face of terrorism — Islamist paramilitaries armed with automatic rifles and explosives — will grow ubiquitous with attacks on an increasing number of soft targets in Europe and the U.S.  Liberty itself, more than lives, will be the main casualty.
  8.  After topping out in April, U.S. stocks will collapse, catalyzing a global bear market that will take four years to run its course. The Dow Industrials, currently trading around 17425, will shed half to two-thirds of its value.
  9. Property values across the U.S. will fall commensurately, catalyzing an outright bust in California, and San Francisco in particular, that will be even more severe than the Great Depression.
  10. The U.S. dollar will continue to strength, overwhelming the efforts of the Fed and other central banks to stave off global deflation.
  11. Long-term interest rates will fall toward an eventual low of 1.64%. Investors who are positioned for this will reap huge capital gains of 35% or more.
  12. The smart money will finally get its comeuppance, with “private equity” going the way of the dodo bird. Warren Buffett will be the last man standing as William Ackman, Carl Icahn and all the other glorified paper-shufflers descend into bankruptcy and disrepute.
  13. With a veto-proof Republican majority, Congress will finally overhaul and hugely simplify the tax code. This will pave the way for a genuine economic recovery during Trump’s second term.
  14. Gold, currently trading for around $1060, will make an important low near $814 in late 2016 or early 2017.
  15. The food industry, led by Chipotle, will embrace a new technology, teraherz spectroscopy, to guarantee the safety of the food chain. This will have implications not only for all sellers of food, but for hospitals, which will use the same process to accurately and instantly diagnose any of a hundred different ailments and diseases. Yet another use of this technology will be to detect explosives in shipping containers and other transport vessels.
  • Jason January 6, 2016, 11:11 am

    If only 1/4 of those things come true (excluding Trump as Pres) the world will be a better place. A painful place, but reality asserts accountability.

  • mdmerg January 5, 2016, 9:33 pm

    “Sir, I find it difficult to believe that with your intelligence…”

    &&&&&

    Seeing is believing, Merg. I’m too cynical to believe in conspiracies — other than the one that gave us the Fed — because it requires ascribing a high level of intelligence to the conspirators. Your Wesley Clark al Qaeda theory, whatever it is, sounds like rubbish.
    RA

  • Iro Noiro January 5, 2016, 12:53 am

    What really props up the value of the US dollar?

    http://www.reuters.com/article/bis-survey-volumes-idUSL6N0GZ34R20130905

    &&&&&&&

    Exactly right. Measured in dollars, the global financial shell game is 25 times as large as the total trade in real goods and services. No currency besides the dollar can facilitate a game this large, and that’s why the dollar is the financiers’ currency of choice. Replace it with “something else”? Yeah, sure. RA

  • Jon January 4, 2016, 8:28 pm

    The two most important things I’ve seen to tell us what’s really going on in this country are, “The Warning” frontline report of how the collapse happened in 2008 and how it started.
    And, the coming collapse of the petrodollar system by Jerry Robinson
    Both of these will have major repercussions for children and grandchildren. And for any freedom we take for granted.

  • Jim Barnett January 4, 2016, 7:45 am

    Rick,
    I like your predictions especially your oil call 🙂 Seems investors have been changing the falling knife for some time now on oil and gas investments. For now my money is in the long bond but one cant help but to think at that some point oil, gas and even mining stocks are going have some great upside. I know there is alot more pain to come but any idea when we should begin probe the long side of this trade? Anything to watch for maybe? You do great work Rick ………keep it up 🙂

  • VegasBob January 4, 2016, 3:40 am

    I rarely vote for Republicans or Democrats anymore because I view both political parties as different sides of the same con, er, coin.

    However, if the Presidential race comes down to Donald Trump vs the conniving liar Hitlery Clinton, I will cheerfully vote for Donald Trump and hope for the best.

    I think we will be looking at an abysmal 4th quarter earnings season. An executive I know at a luxury retailer in Houston said the holiday selling season in 2015 was worse than any year in memory, and this guy has been in retail for over 30 years. His one word comment to describe sales was horrible. It may be peculiar to the Houston area because of the oil price debacle, but I suspect it’s more widespread than that. The touts on CNBS were grasping at straws last week trying to explain why 2016 will be an OK year, but I think every single one of them knew better.

    If the earnings season turns out to be as abysmal as I think, the stock market will likely begin a serious descent as soon as mid-February.

  • Benjamin January 3, 2016, 11:12 pm

    Yep. Donald Trump — Establishment enemy #1, 45th President of the United States!

    One of my predictions for a Trump presidency: As he said, Mexico will pay for that wall. As jihadists continue to spread like cancer across the globe — and this is no secret — they are going to Latin America precisely to take advantage of the pourous border between the U.S. and Mexico. However, as we all know, Islam is no friend of Catholicism. The U.S. is not the sole objective of islam. So jihadists are setting up cells down there as well. The Mexican army and federal police have uncovered this disturbing development some time ago. The only way to stop that threat is to secure the U.S./Mexican border. Mexico will be eager to do so, and probably more quickly than those countries over there in Eurabia.

  • John Jay January 3, 2016, 10:59 pm

    My acid test for sincerity in a Politician is simple.
    Is his message that nothing will ever change for the better unless and until we get the money out of Politics?

    It really is that simple.
    I like Ron Paul.
    But all he ever did was read a litany of what is wrong with the Federal Government.
    Any guy who had served multiple terms in Congress knows how the bribery works to corrupt the system.
    I never heard Ron Paul or anyone else in Congress say: “Special interests have hired the Government for a pittance, and write all the legislation to suit themselves. We need to change the campaign finance laws”.

    I like Donald Trump, and if he is on the ballot, I will vote for him.
    But all I expect from him is a slightly better job of enforcing what is left of our Immigration Laws.
    Other than that, things will continue to get worse for the 99%.
    Because all three branches of Government sold us out a long time ago.
    George Carlin expressed it best:
    “Because we keep voting in these rich c*********s. And they don’t care about you at all, at all, at all.”

  • Rantly McTiradermt January 3, 2016, 8:45 pm

    And, cut in half-or a 50% drop-would be a modest bear cycle from these valuation levels; a trailing P/E of 8x or less and a dividend yield of at least 5%(post inevitable cuts) would mark a final low, like ’82 and ’32, and require well over a 50% decline.

  • Rantly McTirade January 3, 2016, 8:41 pm

    Well, the overwhelming likelihood is that Trump, if he does win, will prove to be a reliable stooge for corporatism, globalism and some degree of multiculturalism, just like his predecessors of the past 85 years-and if he’s not, he’ll probably have some ‘unfortunate accident'(fatal or not) ala George Wallace.
    And what’s this ‘April top’-thought it was turning down with the turn of the calendar.

    &&&&&&

    The more I thought about it, the more a New Year’s crash seemed too pat, RM. Although the stock market is most surely primed for a crash, the needed epiphany could take a few more weeks to gestate.. RA

  • Wayne January 3, 2016, 6:28 pm

    You ever said you were a “Perma-bear”?

    I like your optimism and hope you are right.

    Trump 2016!!!!

    side note: huge move in CL up a 1.32 from globex close, something heavy might be brewing between Saudi and Iran.