We closed out a short tracking position moments after the close, when the futures upticked to new recovery highs. The trade would have produced a gain of $1350 per contract for anyone who followed the original recommendation exactly. Betting against a bull market that has been moving blithely higher for most of the last seven years is always going to be a longshot. However, the fact that we can get away with it — get short at key targets and make a few bucks even when we are wrong — is reason to keep trying. The futures now lie within 2.4% of the record high achieved back in November, but it is by no means a foregone conclusion that they will get there. For now, we can use the trendline shown (see inset) as a minimum upside objective, since there are no valid impulse legs at this level to permit a precise Hidden Pivot calculation. (Note: A target at 2054.00 has come into view. Night owls can try shorting there with a 2055.25 stop.) The resistance comes in at around 2068.00, and wouldn’t it be shocking if the futures were sitting there at the closing bell, daring us to make their day. We won’t take the bait, however — just watch and learn. If you absolutely must get short, I’d suggest using ‘camouflage’ when 2068 is very closely approached. That implies jumping on the first downtrending abc pattern that crops up on the 5-minute chart or lower. _______ UPDATE (March 30 2:27 p.m. ET): I’ve revised the trendline so that a 2083.75 target obtains for this week. It looks like a promising place to anticipate a tradable top, as well as to target a long position from current levels. The slope is about -0.75 points per week.
