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S&Ps Stalled at a Very Crucial Threshold

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Although I projected a 276-point rally in the Dow here yesterday, the S&P 500 futures are at a very crucial threshold. For that reason, we’ll be monitoring price action on the very lesser charts for the first sign of a potentially big downturn.  For precise numbers and Hidden Pivot levels, check out today’s E-Mini S&P tout and the chart that accompanies it.

Please do not ask trading questions!

  • Cam Fitzgerald April 15, 2016, 7:50 am

    The great news here, and there is good news in this Dust set up of yours Rick, is that if the mining sector stock does turn down as it looks certain to do, that all of us will have an excellent chance to get long for a second time.

    We all know people who had been studiously watching the mine sector for the past five years and then mysteriously missed most of the recent spectacular move in share prices.

    For some reason they just could not pull the trigger. Deep doubts still run that deep for those who have been burnt over and over again already by false hopes, dead ends and bull traps.

    And of course they were as blindsided and astonished by the abrupt rise in stock prices but mostly disgusted that they didn’t catch anything more than the tail fumes of the rocket ride.

    Well now we have another chance to get in if only miners will cooperate and fall back with gold. And we will have a much better technical picture to work with because of the way the pattern has now set up.

    We should be pretty pleased about this opportunity because it just confirms that genuine bottoms are easily read after all. The worriers who keep saying that everyone already missed the boat are certainly going to be wrong.

    If my reading of that chart is correct we will now have a chance to time an entry to perfection at a later date. We should rejoice!

  • Cam Fitzgerald April 15, 2016, 7:16 am

    Regarding the HUI, Rick; What looks to have the highest near-term probability to me right now is that the HUI falls back to 156 and change and in the process creates the right hand shoulder of an inverse Head and Shoulder pattern.

    I only say that because after reviewing the long term chart this morning I notice that on the 10 year there is a definite bullish rounded bottom forming.

    We cannot rule out though that the price will return to lows of last September and thus create a giant double bottom from where the miners might finally begin their true launch into a bull market.

    And that could happen easily without violating the existing rounding pattern. My worst case scenario after taking that into account sees the HUI falling to 50 dollars at a rough guess no matter how ridiculous that sounds at first blush.

    All three cases call for declines though and nothing I can see confirms a current breakout to the upside in excess of what we have already seen.

    Just basic charting off the falling trend channel on the HUI since 2013 and we can readily see that the upper channel was never broken and thus we do not have confirmation a true bull market breakout has resumed as the gold bugs keep asserting.

    They are wrong. Technically therefore the HUI must fall if it cannot breakout. I also agree with you there is the potential for that chart to rise a few more dollars first before it bounces off the upper channel and begins a retrace to the lower bounds.

    This appears to me to be a very low risk set up for tremendous gains even if the drop goes no lower than the depth needed to create that right hand shoulder. I appreciated you pointing out the prospects of Dust as one of your possible touts this morning and I agree you are on to something here. Cheers.


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