Judge for yourself the weight of today’s decline relative to the 2169.25 rally target (see inset). Of course, a small loss in momentum could always snowball into a rout. For now, though, I’ll stick with my forecast of a run-up to the target within the next 5-8 days. Alternatively, it would take a 74-point drop, to below 2022.00, to invalidate it. Tuesday’s moderate selloff did generate a weakly bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart; however, it would take a further fall to 2082.25 for bears to inject a note of menace into the immediate outlook. Please note as well that the E-Minis have been moving in lock-step with crude oil prices, and that my forecast for the latter remains bullish up to a 51.49 target, basis the July NYMEX contract. That’s 2.56 above the last settlement price, implying there’s still plenty of upside — not just for crude, but for its current bitch, the U.S. stock market. _______ UPDATE (June 1, 10:08 p.m. EDT): Wednesday’s gratuitous swoon changed nothing in the immediate picture. As noted above, a 2082.25 print would be needed to hint of trouble. The day’s low occurred at 2083.25, instructing us that the machine traders are looking at the same support. As such, with a fan club of sorts, it has become even more important. _______ UPDATE (June 2, 11:32 p.m.): DaBoyz sprung a nasty trap on bears in the early going, goosing this vehicle for a nearly 20-point gain with little in the way of pullbacks. All of this changed nothing in my very bullis, short-term outlook, which is given above. Non-farm payroll numbers are due out today, and although the stock market is likely to act as though it cares, it’s almost inconceivable to me that anyone actually does.
