BPU16 – Sep British Pound (Last:1.4200)

If p gives wayBrexit talk in the Rick’s Picks chat room on Wednesday suggested there’s a wide gulf between bulls and bears where the British pound is concerned. The chart shown puts the argument in a technical perspective that should offer clarity to both camps. Notice that the futures, shown here via the continuous monthly CME contract, bounced very precisely from the midpoint Hidden Pivot, as we might have anticipated. That said, we cannot predict at this point whether the bounce will sputter out in a matter of days or weeks, or if instead the futures will soon embark on a multiyear rally. My gut feeling is that the bounce from so important a Hidden Pivot support has not been nearly as robust as we might have expected, and that as a result, the futures will ultimately crack 1.3893. If so, we could confidently expect the downtrend to continue to 1.2248, the secondary Hidden Pivot, and to bounce as precisely from it as it has from 1.3893.  If that support were to fail as well, the 1.0602 Hidden Pivot target would be in play as a possible bear market low.