Although the Dow and S&P 500 are within easy distance of new record highs, two of the best technicians we know doubt they will be achieved. In a lengthy analysis that considered various technical indicators, including the Coppock Curve, key advance/decline lines and the VIX Index, Stockmarket Cycles‘ Peter Eliades recently concluded as follows: “We continue to believe that the highs reached in May of last year will continue to mark all-time highs for years to come.” He notes, however, that the Coppock, a tool designed to provide long-term buy signals, lay within a hair of generating a buy signal last week. Our friend Larry Amernick, a past president of the Technical Securities Analysts Association of San Francisco, similarly concludes that technical negatives outweigh positives at the moment, making new all-time highs unlikely. For our part, we see new record highs within the next 2-3 weeks. Specifically, Rick’s Picks has an outstanding projection of 2169.25 for the E-Mini S&P futures, or 2250.00 if any higher. The lower target, a Hidden Pivot resistance, would surpass the record  2134.00 achieved in May 2015 by 35 points.

The accompanying chart shows why we are convinced that new all-time highs await. What persuades most is the power of the impulsive A-B rally that unfolded between mid-May and early June. Although it added just 96 points to the value of the index, it surpassed two major peaks — an ‘internal’ and and ‘external’ — that I’ve labeled. Now, as long as the current pullback does not exceed mid-May’s 2022.00 low, current weakness should be regarded as corrective and therefore a buying opportunity. We would have to rethink our bullish stance, however, if the decline, now a week old, were to breach not only the 2022.00 low, but a second ‘external’ low that occurred at 2012.25 on March 24. In practice, we needn’t wait for that to happen to shift our trading bias from bullish to bearish. All that’s required would be for the futures to start exceeding minor correction targets on the one-  and three-minute charts, and for commensurately minor ABCD rallies to fail to reach their D targets.  Accordingly, our focus will be on the lesser intraday charts as the stock market continues to tread very dangerous waters.