SIN16 – July Silver (Last:17.330)

Decisive silver push pastJuly Silver’s weekly chart shows why bulls should be optimistic. Notice how the A-B ‘booster stage’ of a possible bull market exceeded three prior peaks (see inset), two of them ‘external’, before buyers took a breather. This offers strong evidence that the sell-off from early May’s high near $18 is merely corrective and extremely unlikely to wipe out 2016’s gains. A theoretical ‘buy’ signal would trip at 16.638, and although we can use camouflage to get long there with relatively little risk, my hunch is that Comex Silver is not yet ready for a big leg up to match April’s. In the meantime, we shouldn’t fear a further pullback to as low as 15.000, since that could set up a very opportune ‘counterintuitive’ trade that could allow us to back up the truck with entry risk tightly controlled. ______ UPDATE (June 8, 10:49 a.m. EDT): Please note that 16.638 is not to be construed as a go-ahead signal unless you are looking to ‘camouflage’ your way aboard today. The hourly chart rules at the moment (A=14.960 on 4/6), and I’d like to see a two-day close above p=17.380 to be persuaded the rally is for real. The ‘D’ target associated with that number is 18.930. _______ UPDATE (8:15 p.m.): This is the most encouraging rally we’ve seen in a while, but we should still require the futures to take out the 17.380 midpoint Hidden Pivot noted above before we uncork the bubbly. I’ve refreshed the chart to show the rally pattern controlling the move. The way the futures are acting Wednesday night after barely correcting, it may not be long before we can confidently infer the 18.930 target will be reached. _______ UPDATE (June 12, 4:26 p.m.): Friday’s weak rally stalled at 17.380 exactly, confirming the bullish pattern we’ve been using and its 18.930 target. However, the futures will need to push past the lower number decisively to put the higher one in play.  A lesser, bullish pattern evident on the 30-minute chart implies there would be discernible resistance along the way at 17.456 and 17.555 (A=16.950 on 6/9 at 9:30 a.m.).