So much for my prediction that Friday would be a boring day. Payroll figures released before the opening showed the U.S. economy to have added 287,000 McJobs in June. DaBoyz took this number and ran with it, short-squeezing the Dow mercilessly for a 250-point gain. The E-Mini S&P surged a corresponding 32 points to 2120.75, a new record that will likely leave bulls in charge when index futures begin trading again Sunday night. Because the rally somewhat exceeded a plain-vanilla Hidden Pivot target at 2118.00 on the hourly chart, a bigger pattern must be at work. It is shown in the accompanying chart and projects to 2149.25. Notice that the ultimate target could lie well above it, since there are three potential point ‘A’ lows still available if the ‘D’ target associated with the one in the chart is surpassed.
In retrospect, traders could have bought Wednesday’s pullback to p=2065.38 ‘mechanically’ with no pain, albeit $4200 of initial risk per contract. The secondary pivot at 2107.31 could similarly serve as a place to get long with a ‘mechanical’ bid, but there can be no guarantees the futures will pull back to it before they push on to 2149.25. If they do, and get past that ‘hidden’ resistance easily, a 2194.00 target would be in play. That is the ‘D’ Hidden Pivot associated with A=1907.00 (3/1). The highest target one could project using the daily chart is 2313.50. That comes from A=1787.50 (2/11/16), and if it comes to pass, the Dow would be trading at or not far below 20,000. The related midpoint pivot is 2147.50, so we should look for a possible stall there as well, since it would confirm the largest pattern.
Incidentally, the 2313.50 target is not far above one at 2250 that I projected for the June contract more than a month ago. I was just a bearish in my gut then as I am now, but in the end I always go with the technical evidence rather than with “feelings”. In that regard, I may be one of the most bullish permabears in the guru world. _______ UPDATE (11:17 p.m. EDT): On the 15-minute chart, this evening’s minor uptrend (A=2103.50 on 7/8 at 9:45 a.m. EDT) projects to 2141.75. With two much more significant HP resistance points, respectively, at 2147.50 and 2149.25, the next 20 points should be very tough going. If the futures should somehow blow through the 2140s anyway, bears had better take a close look at the chart accompanying this tout, since the highest of three successive targets shown, 2313.50, will be well in play.