ESU16 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:2152.75)

ES push past p has shortened oddsOdds of a run-up to as high as 2313.50 shortened last week when the futures speared a 2147.50 ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance’ associated with the target (see inset). Although the breach amounted to a relatively moderate 20 points, it was sufficient to imply that the target, along with a secondary one at 2230.50, be taken seriously, especially by traders and investors skeptical that the bull market could have so much life remaining. If the target is achieved, it would equate to a Dow rally of about 1300 points. The potential silver lining for permabears is that the 2313.50 pivot is a major resistance that could conceivably put the kibosh on a bull market currently in its 89th month. Even if not, it still looks extremely likely to produce a substantial correction that would be tradable. More immediately, a target at 2194.00 previously identified here can serve as our minimum upside objective for the next 4-7 days. The failed Turkish coup is unlikely to change that, notwithstanding the fact that index futures tanked at the bell Friday on initial reports that Erdogan, Obama’s and the Muslim Brotherhood’s favorite dictator, had been deposed.