ESU16 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:2158.25)

ES a dangerous betThe 2194.00 target that I first featured here a while back is still on our radar and not too distant, even if three days of grueling chop have brought the futures no closer to it. Contemplate the chart (see inset) with a little imagination and an open mind and you could convince yourself that the S&Ps are basing for another bold leap higher. But it is just as easy to see them fixing to dive a hundred points for whatever reason. All of which argues against taking an aggressive stand right now, even if the payoff for being right could be substantial. Most immediately, focusing on the minor ABC trends at the rightmost edge of the chart, the next upthrust could be expected to hit 2171.75, a Hidden Pivot that would become an odds-on bet once the ‘secondary pivot’ at 2164.63 has been exceeded by more than a point. Alternatively, an unpaused drop exceeding 2139.50 to the downside would be warning of possible trouble.  As always, we’ll take our forecasts one day at a time until the futures bolt higher, or lower.