ESU16 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:2182.50)

Smaller ES pattern can warn us[This tout, scheduled to go out last Sunday evening, apparently didn’t auto-publish. I am disseminating it now because it offers a bigger picture than the current tout. This week’s tedious price action has not altered anything.] Friday’s wilding spree easily surpassed my 2173.00 target, implying that a larger bullish ABC pattern is at work. Everything is right with the world, or so Wall Street would have us infer.  The big-picture pattern shown, with an ambitious target at 2313.50, should look familiar. We’ve been using it since late June to stretch the bullish imagination even as we’ve grown increasingly skeptical at each new record high. The pattern tripped a ‘mechanical’ buy signal last week on the pullback to the red line, and the steep climb since suggests that the secondary pivot (p2) at 2230.50 is very likely to be reached no matter how skeptical we are. That target and the one above it should be considered both reliable and precise, meaning tradable pullbacks from each are likely and that, moreover, a decisive move past p2 would make D an odds-on bet. We are not obliged to trust Wall Street’s celebratory mood or its judgment, however, and that is why I would suggest keeping the smaller ABC pattern in mind as we monitor the rally’s progress in relation to the midpoint pivot (2189.50) and the D target (2237.50). _______ UPDATE (August 11, 7:49 p.m. EDT): This pattern is precisely on track for move to 2190.75, with a potentially tradable pullback from that Hidden Pivot: 60-minute, A=2160.50 on 8/5; B=2183.50 on 8/9; and C=2167.75. Notice the exact hits at p=2179.25; and today, at 2185.00. The retracement to the green line offered a painless ‘mechanical’ entry, albeit without the customary three-bar pause we usually require.