ESU16 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:2180.25)

We'll stop ourselves outThe futures have fallen five points so far after topping precisely at the 2190.75 rally target (see inset) I’d projected last week.  As far as I can tell, no subscribers were long for the ride north. However, because several of you reported getting short this morning near 2190, and because my instructions to do so were explicit and precise, I’ve established a tracking position: short two contracts with a 2195.25 cost basis. This price has been adjusted to reflect a partial profit taken on half of an initial four-contract position covered at 2186.25 (as advised in a chat room post at 11:25 a.m.). For now, place a bid at 2181.50 to cover a third contract, and make it o-c-o with a separate order to exit the remainder of our position (i.e., cover two short contracts) via a 2190.75 buy-stop. The rally target was not a major one, but we’ll swing for the fences nonetheless if we are left with a single-contract short that gets comfortably in-the-black. ______  UPDATE (August 16, 10:34 a.m. EDT): A nine-point drop overnight to a so-far low of 2177.00 has allowed us to cover a third contract for 2181.50. The short contract or the 25% of the original position that we still hold has an imputed cost basis of 2209.00. For now, use a stop-loss at 2186.25. _______ UPDATE (6:14 p.m.): Let the position ride, since things are going our way (see inset).  We’re not quite swinging for the fences yet, but if we were to use a hair-trigger ‘impulsive’ stop-loss, we’d exit the position on an uncorrected rally exceeding the two numbered peaks shown. _______ UPDATE (August 17, 7:26 p.m.): We’ll stick with our plan, meaning you should exit on a stop-loss if 2186.25 is hit. That would leave us with a theoretical profit on the trade of $1137.  FYI, Wednesday’s intraday low at 2165.50 was the exact target of this pattern on the 15-minute chart: a=2190.75 on 8/15; b=2175.25 on 8/16; and c= 2181.00. Notice that the point ‘b’ low was not ‘sausage’, adding legitimacy to the impulse leg and credibility to the corrective pattern.