I’m tracking a 500-share position with a cost basis that has been lowered by profit-taking to 128.02. Attacks by sellers have been savage but short-lived. However, because the long-term trend isn’t in doubt, we should try to augment our position on weakness. For now, use a 137.70 bid for 400 shares to do so, good-till-canceled. Check daily for updates, since I will modify our strategy if TLT shows reluctance to gift us with a bargain price. This is a long-term play, and I encourage new subscribers who want to get their feet wet to track this tout closely, since I will periodically update with tactics to augment the position. ______ UPDATE (August 17, 8:10 p.m. EDT): Lower the bid to 137.57, since the trendline shown (see inset, a new chart) is more compelling than any Hidden Pivot-based correction target I could offer you at the moment._______ UPDATE (August 25, 1:32 a.m.): Raise the bid to 137.71 to compensate for the rising slope of the trendline. ______ UPDATE (August 31, 12:35 a.m.): Cancel the bid for now, since TLT shows little inclination to accommodate it._______ UPDATE (September 8, 9:11 p.m.): TLT almost certainly has more correcting to do, but let’s wait and see how the selling unfolds before we attempt a ‘mechanical’ buy to augment our long-term position. Regardless, I’ll suggest bottom-fishing with a 136.76 bid, stop 136.68, for 400 shares. If the stop-loss is tagged, we should brace for more weakness down to as low as 135.09. On the hourly chart, here’s the pattern we’re using: a=143.59 (7/8); b=136.99 (7/29); and c=141.64.______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 8:14 a.m.): The steep selloff of the last week has decisively exceeded the 135.09 pivot. The next capable of spawning a decent rally lies at 133.59, but if it gives way, that would open a path to as low as 132.27. Those two numbers are, respectively, the midpoint Hidden Pivot and D target associated with these coordinates on the hourly chart: A=136.00 (9/1); B=133.36 (9/13); and C=134.91. _______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 11:27 p.m.): The intraday low at 133.03 decisively breached the 133.59 Hidden Pivot, implying that more slippage to at least 132.27 is imminent. Bulls would get a reprieve if TLT instead rebounds above 136.00
