GDX – Gold Miners ETF (Last:25.15)

gdx-bulls-need A bull-trap reversal hit the green line, putting a 20.24 downside target theoretically in play.  Accordingly, we should look to trade the ETF with a bearish bias. That implies you could either look to get short now via camouflage, or wait until GDX trips a ‘mechanical’ short after the green line has been breached decisively for several bars. Thereafter, it is the rally back up to the green line that would get us short ‘mechanically.’ Alternatively, it would take a rally a to at least 27.26 to turn the daily chart back to bullishly impulsive.  Some of you may have noticed that GDX is also on a ‘counterintuitive’ buy signal triggered at 24.92 last week. We can use it later if there’s a strong pop above it today or tomorrow, since that would improve the odds of a rally to as high as 32.16. Otherwise, today’s bearish price action demands caution. _______ UPDATE (Oct 25, 9:13 p.m. ET): The bounce from Monday’s low has given bulls a reprieve, but the stock will need to surpass a Hidden Pivot resistance at 25.87 (a=22.91 on 10/14, daily chart) to hint that the rally is more than just a correction. It will take a print at 27.26, however, to turn things around decisively._______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 10:40 p.m.): To keep the intraday charts looking bullish, GDX will need to close above p=24.47 (see inset, a new chart) without having gone lower than 23.43 — and the sooner the better. _______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 9:20 p.m.): Bulls managed a close an inch above our 24.47 benchmark. With just a little more push, they will likely make it to 25.51, the closest Hidden Pivot resistance above. A decisive push past that price, particularly on first contact with it, would have further, bullish implications going forward. _______ UPDATE (Nov 1, 5:27 p.m.): With a powerful $1.05 leap, buyers slightly exceeded my ambitious rally target at 25.51. This is bullish as far as it goes, but GDX will need to push above 25.99 on the next thrust to prove its mettle. That number is equal to the last price peak before this vehicle dropped off a cliff on October 4.