DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:19805)

djia-easy-move-pastThe 19727 target we were using to stay on the right side of the rampaging bull has gotten trashed, suggesting buyers are in need of no rest, even after climbing 2550 points from the election night low. A run-up to 20,000 seemed in-the-bag when 19727 got taken out a week ago, but here’s something more ambitious to contemplate: 21,101, the rally target of the pattern shown. Judging from the ease with which the Dow blew past the 19492 midpoint pivot, odds of a further run-up to 21,101 in the first quarter of 2017 look quite good — about 75% in my estimation. The chart also implies that a pullback to the red line would be a ‘mechanical’ buy if it were to occur four to six weeks from now. ______ UPDATE (Jan 18): I’ve refreshed the chart to show how the Indoos are rolling over after having smashed through the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. A pullback to the red line would be a ‘mechanical’ buy in theory, but a further 600-point fall to the green line would be a less risky place to try it. For now, though, getting short looks like a better bet.