ESZ16 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2248.25)

target-with-some-heftIt’s always exciting to watch the S&Ps steal up on an important Hidden Pivot target that has been months in coming. This time there were two of them, at 2240.25 and 2250.00 respectively. When the dust settled on Thursday, the futures had slightly exceeded the latter with an intraday high at 2251.50. The pullback that followed was barely a retracement, however, and that’s why I hesitate to infer that the TrumpSanta rally is over. If not, there is yet one more target of immediate consequence left — at 2299.00 (see inset). The problem is, if the futures get there, the Dow Industrials would be trading at 20,000, which is 273 points above the very highest target I’d allowed for this run-up. How do I reconcile the discrepancy? My instinct is to assume that the Dow is headed to 20,000, and the E-Mini S&Ps to 2299.00. That would put them back in synch of a sort — i.e., at round-number resistance with the heft to stop a bull that has been charging hard since 2009.  And what if the Dow blithely blows past 20,000? I’d have to side, at least until my technical indicators tell me otherwise, with lunatic-fringe bulls who seem to think 20,000 will provide just another launching pad rather than daunting resistance. My E-Mini S&P target at that point would be 2417.50 –equivalent to around Dow 21000. And above that? More than likely, we’d be looking at four more years of the Trumpster. (Trading note: Our tracking position still holds one of four contracts originally acquired for 2185.75. Imputing partial profits booked on the way up yields a cost basis of 2087.25 and a theoretical gain on the trade of about $8000 so far.)