‘Farmer’ Sees a Perfect Storm Brewing for Nikkei, U.S. Stocks, T-Bonds, Gold and Yen


Farmer is the handle of an astute market-watcher who occasionally posts here. He expects an imminent top in the Nikkei to produce a corresponding top in the U.S. stock market. Here’s his logic: “Keep your eyes peeled on Nikkei 20,000 as it fast approaches because it looks like we will see that number by the time Yellen gives her press conference on March 15. That is my D-Day line-in-the-sand for [both] stock markets, and upon arrival, the spot where we will finally hit chart resistance worth talking about. That is the point that, once reached, will signal a correction has arrived for U.S. equities. And yes, I would agree it is an implausible-sounding idea on its face. But it’s probably also going to be correct too.

“I would not underestimate [this indicator]; there are no other important prior resistance [peaks] on any other equity-index charts that might indicate where the top comes in, since all U.S. markets [are trading in record territory].  This is the only reference point that really matters, given the significance of the Nikkei to the yen, and in turn its correlation to gold and bonds.  Now, here we are, and the odd confluence of an FOMC event with a rate hike on the table that may be just enough to cause the 30-year Treasurys to fall below their multi-year trendline, coinciding with a Nikkei print at 20,000, is just too much for me to ignore. Call me nuts if the date passes uneventfully, but I think I am on to something here.”

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