ESM17 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:2372.75)

The futures have been churning for a month, unable to muster the gumption for a run at new record highs.  The last one, recorded on March 1, occurred a millimeter from a Hidden Pivot target that had been 13 months in coming. Small wonder, then, that buyers would need a rest. But seven weeks’ worth? What are they waiting for? If it’s sunny economic news, traders may have to bide their time for a year or two while the U.S. economy weathers a recession. We’ve been writing about this prospect for quite a while, since it’s seemed obvious that rising interest rates would eventually kill the housing and auto sectors. This appears to be happening right now, even if it will be another six to nine months before the Commerce Department figures it out.  The foregoing should tell you why the E-Mini S&Ps seem in no great hurry to test the old high. If and when they do, however, it will not be because of bullish buying power, but because of short-covering by bears too agitated to simply let stocks fall. That is sufficient reason for us to give the 2439.00 rally target the benefit of the doubt for now. But if the futures should pleasantly surprise by getting the crap kicked out of them next week, the fun would begin with a breach of the 2304.25 downside target shown. That target is not new, just neglected and forgotten in the throes of last week’s excruciating scuddle. _______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 7:40 p.m. ET): DaBoyz have squeezed the futures sharply higher Sunday evening, exuberantly over-celebrating LePen’s failure to capture the French presidency on the first ballot. We should pay attention not to the election, but to whether this short-squeeze pushes the June contract through the 2378.38 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance shown in the chart. If so, bears should consider hedging their short stock positions by betting on LePen’s opponent, centrist Macron. _______ UPDATE (Apr 24, 11:25 p.m.): No change.  A strong push above 2378.38, or a two-day close above it, will put the 2439.00 target well in play.