Just a Case of Nerves

Major stock indexes flounced around in a very tight range Monday for the third consecutive day. Surprisingly, the VIX/VXX seems to have judged the tedium of it all correctly, rising steadily intraday to close at the session high (see inset). Even though stocks haven’t been going anywhere lately, the apparent sense of things among traders is that this won’t last. If and when shares go loco, which they inevitably will, my hunch is that it the move will be down. Since no such move is likely to occur with traders loaded up on puts, we should look for a head-fake to shake them out just before the avalanche.  That’s why we’ve been trying to buy put options on moderate strength. For the exact strategy, check out my latest DIA tout below.