ESM17 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:2431.50)

Wednesday’s selling bottomed three ticks above the 2423.25 target where we’d intended to bottom-fish, denying us an opportunity to catch the 10-point bounce that followed. The bounce was technically unimpressive and inconsequential, but the day ended with a slightly bullish bias for the very near-term. Take a few steps back, however, and you can see a bigger picture (inset) that provides reason for caution. Specifically, last week’s record high occurred almost precisely at the 2439.00 Hidden Pivot resistance shown. An upward reversal and stab through it would be very bullish, especially if it were to occur by week’s end. However, for the time being we should presume that the futures will need a rest of at least 3-5 days before they can try to muscle their way past a target that took four months to reach. Yes, the recent peak could mark the start of The Big One. But given the fact that the bull has been charging hard for more than eight years, odds are against it.