QQQ – Nasdaq ETF (Last:140.75)

Tuesday’s rally in this vehicle diverged from declines in the Dow and S&Ps, but not sufficiently to suggest that the FAANG/lunatic stocks are feisty enough to drag the stock market higher at the moment. There’s no need to guess what’s coming next, however, since QQQ’s behavior over the next day or two can tell us what we need to know. A decisive pop above p=141.49 would indicate bulls are about to resume their upward trek into the cosmos; alternatively, a fall beneath 137.47 would imply trouble is brewing._______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 10:55 p.m. EDT): Let’s speculate cautiously, buying a few puts to take home over the weekend if QQQ gets within 0.05 points of the 141.49 pivot resistance on Friday. Specifically, I’ll recommend buying four June 30 141 puts with QQQ trading between 141.45 and 141.54. I estimate they’ll be trading for around 0.65 at the time, but you can improve on this guess and use your good judgment to get a good price by simply observing the bid/asked spread for the options as the underlying moves toward the target.______UPDATE (Jun 25, 6:05 p.m.): The intraday high fell a few pennies shy of our put-buying threshold. Use the same instructions on Monday, but with two modifications: lower the bid for the puts to 0.60, and bid them only for the first 40 minutes of the session._______UPDATE (Jun 26, 11:05 a.m.):  QQQ opened way above the tight range I’d specified for buying puts this morning, and so, strictly speaking, there would have been nothing done on the order. However, if you did buy them with a straight limit bid at 0.60 — understandable under the circumstances — I’d suggest cashing out of half of your position right now for around 1.00 — a nice profit that will cushion the remainder. (Actually, they are trading near 1.13 at the moment, close to doubling in value in the last 35 minutes.) ________ UPDATE (Jun 26, 11:45 a.m.): Several subscribers reported ‘doubling out’ or better (it was in fact possible to triple one’s money in the first hour), so I’ll establish a tracking position:  two puts remaining of an original four, cost basis zero.